Tuesday, November 02, 2004
Blogging the Election
...I’ll post to this thread when something interesting happens. If Drummy, Steve of Norway, or Kevin (or anyone else, for that matter) have something to add, they can e-mail me at jcross1kirk@ameritech.net, and, if salient, I will post it on the thread. Bill me for the bandwidth, Drummy!
1805 EST: The Kentucky and Indiana polls within the Eastern time Zone just closed. I don’t know how long it will take for the people to count enough to get a mathematically large enough sample for a proper projection. RCP has Kentucky going to Bush by 21 points, and Indiana to Bush by 19 or so. These projections may be later than expected, as a good chunk of the two states are still voting. When I hear something, I’ll post it here.
1823 EST: Just note....Guam went big-time for Bush. It was 17,264 for Bush, 9,540 for Kerry.
1901 EST: Bush gets Georgia and Indiana, and Kerry gets Vermont. That, and the sun rose today. So, early, Bush has the lead, 26 EV’s to 3. Waiting for a percentage from the projections.
1906 EST: Kentucky goes to the President. 34 to 3 now.
1911 EST: FOX reports that the Florida absentee ballots will not be completely counted until Thursday. They also say that the Republicans believe that they will have a big advantage in those absentee ballots. Remember 2000? There will be no way that these ballots will not be counted this year. And, to make you feel better, there are tens of thousands of those absentee ballots. If Florida is Bush’s at the end of the night (by more than 1%), Kerry is going to have little chance.
Last thought. If Kerry loses Pennsylvania, it’s over.
1931 EST: Ohio, the first of the Big Three (Including Pennsylvania and Florida) just closed its polls. West Virginia was just projected to go into the Bush column. making it 39-3. Virginia and South Carolina look to be next, and, sorry, Ohio is gonna take a while. I have to go bathe my daughters, so the next update might not be for about 15-20 minutes.
1952 EST: I’m back....at a commercial break. Darnit! The FOX website seems to be 3-5 minutes behind the cable broadcast.
2000 EST: Motherlode time of closing polls. The other two of the Big Three (Pennsylvania and Florida) are closing. Surprised on FOX not calling Virginia yet. Their percentages show Bush up by 12 or so.
2005 EST: Bush has won some more, and so has Kerry. New Jersey, Massachusetts, Delaware, Illinois, Connecticut, and Maryland have gone to Kerry. That nets him a BIG amount of electoral votes....74 more. Bush has been awarded Alabama, Tennessee, and Oklaholma. That brings his total to 66.
2012 EST: World Mag is a good website.
2015 EST: Waiting for a call for Virginia.....Bush is 16 points ahead. South Carolina has just been called for the President, with a lead of 11 points.
2028 EST: Waiting sucks. Monitoring three websites. The aforementioned world Mag, Yahoo’s election page, and Fox News website, which I am strongly thinking of dropping. EV’s are currently even. Looks like Republican Senators are going to be coming from North and South Carolina. Voinovich, the moderate Republican from Ohio, is going to retain his seat.
2033 EST: North Carolina and Virginia just got called for Bush. That takes him from 77 EV’s to 102 EV’s...we’re 35% of the way there, and Florida looks GREAT so far!
2045 EST: I e-mailed Steve at Vodkapundit, and told him about our little running commentary over here...let’s see how it goes (i.e. if we get shaken and stirred by some VodkaPundit visitors). Now, more waiting. FOX guys talking about how strong Bush looks in Florida. One can only hope.
2051 EST: Susan Estrich is on FOX right now. I will fight the urge to claw my eyes out. Time for a scorecard for RCP:
KY--17-21% for Bush. Current total: 19% for Bush
NC--6-9% for Bush. Current total: 12% for Bush
SC--13-16% for Bush. Current total: 13% for Bush
Most of the Kerry states have such low voter numbers, I can wait for a little while before making comparisons. Looks good for RCP, though. GOOD JOB OVER THERE, GUYS!!
2059 EST: Bush is leading Kerry 56-43 in Florida, with 35% counted. That means that Kerry has to win the rest of the votes by 7%, at a minimum. Good so far, right? Knock on a big piece of wood. Next to close, the Northern tier, and the important states of Wisconsin and Minnesota.
2102 EST: Texas to Bush. Be still, my beating heart. Bush to 136 EV’s...halfway there. Kerry is given New York and Rhode Island. That adds 35 to his total, and that gives us 112 for Kerry. No surprises yet, and no real big difference in the popular vote, though it seems that Florida is stronger for Bush than it was last time.
2111 EST: The Great Plains have gone to Bush. Nebraska, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Kansas, adding a grand total of 27 more EV’s....he’s at 163 at this time. Kerry is still at 112. Ohio is still too close, and Michigan and Pennsylvania haven’t had enough votes counted. Oops....Vermont, to Kerry? OK...three more to Kerry. That takes him to 115.
2119 EST: Florida just closed up to a 7-point Bush lead. I shouldn’t have opened my mouth....However, Bush has an early lead in Ohio. If Bush wins those two, it will end for Kerry. If Kerry wins one or the other, Bush is in danger. Another surprise is Missouri....pretty close, within 1700 votes with 7% of the precincts counted. Lastly, Arkansas is closer than I thought it would be. Bush losing those two states (and their 17 EV’s) would be devestating. Do I think Bush will win those states? Yeah, but it’s closer than what I would be comfortable with. He could lose one, and still be OK, but I don’t need the stress. Note: Popular vote so far is 54-46 Bush, but California and the West haven’t been counted.
2126 EST: Pennsylvania vote totals are way outta wack, but I have to believe that the urban centers are reporting their totals first.
2133 EST: NEWS! World Mag just pushed Mississippi and Louisiana to Bush....that bops him up to 169 (per World Mag), 156 per RCP, and 170 per me. However, in order to piss on that parade, it looks like a large city (St Louis?) input it’s numbers into the Missouri numbers, and Bush is behind by 29,000 votes. Ugh.
2144 EST: Missouri is back into our column....another 2% of the precincts, and Bush is now up by 32,000. Ohio is looking surprisingly strong (knock, knock, knock), with 16% of precincts reporting, and Bush up by 5%. That means Kerry has to win the rest of the precincts by more than 1%, at least 50-49%. If he does not, Ohio goes to Bush, and Kerry is in a very dire position. Florida is 65% counted, and Bush is ahead by 6%...Kerry has to win the rest of the state by 12% in order to catch him, and the Panhandle is left to count. That takes a load off of my shoulders.
2152 EST: Took an in-depth look at Ohio, and it is gonna close up a bit. Not a lot of the NE (Heavily Democrat) area has been counted, and though that will be countered by the South and West parts of the state, there are a lot of people that are more than likely to vote Kerry in the Northeast of the state. Hang on. The breakdown of Florida is much better.
2203 EST: Wife just got home, saying that Kerry said that he wouldn’t concede, even if he lost. That would not surprise me in the least. Also, first beer of the night..Michelob Ultra. OK....Montana and Utah just got put into the Bush Column...that takes him (according to my count) to 178. Looks like they are also going to call Arkansas for Bush. Seems early to me..I’ll sit on that for a while.
2213 EST: Looked into Pennsylvania a bit...the returns from the really conservative center of the state haven’t been addressed yet. Most are less than 30% counted. That will end up closer than it is right now. FOX is now calling Arkansas and Missouri. Again, I’ll sit for a while on those....Missouri has bounced all around tonight.
2235 EST: Took a bit of a break. Ate some chips and salsa, and watched the FOX news guys. New states? Well, I’ll go ahead and add Arkansas and Missouri to the Bush list, and that takes him, according to me, to 195 EV’s. Florida looks very good for Bush...with 85% counted, Bush is still ahead by 5%....that means that Kerry is going to have to win the remaining 15% of Precincts by an average of 25%...I don’t think that is going to happen. However, I think that Florida will be called for Bush by 2300.
2246 EST: I think that Arizona, Colorado, and New Mexico are all going to go to Bush. They should be so by 2330 EST. If Florida goes to Bush, and these three do as well, that will give Bush 51 EV’s in addition to what he has right now. That would be 246 EV’s.....Idaho and Nevada are going to go to Bush as well....that takes him to 255 EV’s. After that, Ohio, or Wisconsin and Iowa, or Wisconsin, Hawaii, and Alaska will win it for Bush. Kerry has a long row to hoe.
2254 EST: I’m about ready to give Pennsylvania to Kerry, but I’ll wait on that one, like I waited on Missouri.
2257 EST: FOX did it for me. Pennsylvania goes to John Kerry. That makes our total 195 to 133. Kerry is going to get three quick states very soon...California, Oregon, and Washington. That block is 73 EV’s, and it will even out the EV’s real quick. In other thoughts, Ohio looks good to me, with the heavily Democratic areas having been counted more than the heavily Republican areas. At this point, Ohio is the key.
2315 EST: Arizona has gone to the Republican Candidate. That takes Bush up another 10 EV’s, and he breaks the 200 barrier. Kerry gains Washington (11 EV’s), taking him up to 144. We’ll go ahead and give him California as well. That gives him 199 (according to me). so we are sitting at 205 to 199.
Note: Lost my DSL for about 10 minutes. Sorry!
2330 EST: The networks are burnt out on Florida...Bush is ahead 5% with 5% to be counted.....Kerry would have to win by an 10 to 1 margin in order to win. Bush leads by enough so that the absentee ballots, should they fall 3-to-1 in Kerry’s favor, wouldn’t be enough. I’m this far (holds up fingers an inch apart) from giving Bush the win in Florida. I was wrong about the people calling it for Bush by 2300, but if they don’t do it by midnight, I’ll do it myself.
2349 EST: Iowa is still hanging out there....still there. It looks like that the Des Moines precincts have been counted, and that Kerry has a slight lead, with the rural parts of the state still needing to be counted. I’d love to see that occur, and Bush gain back the 30,000 or so votes he needs to garner the EV’s.
Here’s what I see at Midnight, November 3. Within an hour, we should know a couple things. Florida has got to be called.....it’s out of Kerry’s reach. Bush is 4.7% ahead with 3% of the precincts remaining. Kerry can’t win that many votes. That makes it 232-199, Bush. Ohio is a puzzle, since a lot of Cleveland and the NE has still not been counted yet. Let’s leave that alone. Let’s give Minnesota, and Oregon to Kerry. That takes him to 216. Add Michigan, and he’s at 233. So, 233 for Kerry, and 232 for Bush, with Ohio, New Hampshire, Alaska, Hawaii, Nevada, Colorado, Wisconsin, and New Mexico remaining.
Alaska is going to go to Bush...that takes him to 235. Colorado and New Mexico are over 70% counted, and Bush is leading in both. Giving him those votes will put him at 249. He needs 21 more.....
0023 EST: Florida is now a Bush win. YES!! That makes the official Drumwaster count 232 to 199 in favor of GWB. Ohio, Colorado, New Mexico, and Alaska would take W to 275. Yeah....still, it’s Ohio.
0035 EST: Hello to Captain’s Quarters, who shares that the urban vote is mostly counted, and that the rural, consevative vote is still outstanding. Look for Bush’s numbers to close. Winning this state helps a ton. The good Captain has also told us that Minnesota should start closing up, but I don’t think that it will close fast enough for the good guys to pull it out there.
0041 EST: FOX just called Ohio for Bush. Hold your horses. Don’t get goofy. Kerry is taking New Hampshire, making his total 203. If true, this takes Bush’s CONFIRMED EV’s to 252 (where I’m at). Colorado....Went to Bush! That makes his total 261..? We need to review with RCP:
Presidential Race - State by State Results
Bush - 266 --------------Kerry - 211
Indiana (11) ---------Vermont (3)
Kentucky (8) --------Connecticut (7)
Georgia (15) -----------Maine (4)
West Virginia (5) --------New Jersey (15)
Oklahoma (7) --------Massachusetts (12)
Alabama (9) ----------Delaware (3)
Tennessee (11) ----------D.C. (3)
South Carolina (8) -------Maryland (10)
Virginia (13) ----------Illinois (21)
North Carolina (15) -------Rhode Island (4)
Texas (34) ------------New York (31)
Wyoming (3) -------Pennsylvania (21)
North Dakota (3) --------California (55)
South Dakota (3) --------Washington (11)
Nebraska (5) ---------- Oregon (7)
Kansas (6) ---------New Hampshire (4)
Mississippi (6)
Louisiana (9)
Missouri (11)
Utah (5)
Montana (3)
Arizona (10)
Idaho (4)
Colorado (9)
Florida (27)
Ohio (20)
Arkansas (6)
New Mexico and Alaska are all that we need, now. Or, Wisconsin. Minnesota looks as if it is going to Kerry, and that takes his EV count to 221. Now, of course, FOX is saying that the vote count is closing up. Gadzooks.....
0104 EST: 16% of precincts remain in Ohio. Bush is ahead by 2%. Kerry has to win the remaining precincts by at least 7% in order to win. I can’t see how they can do that.
0122 EST: Now, 10% remain in Ohio, and Bush is climbing back up in lead...up to 3%. Kerry appears doomed in Ohio. Alaska is now considered Bush Country....that takes him, including Ohio, to 269. Ever. So. Close. Iowa’s vote count has shifted towards Bush, and New Mexico has become stable, with a 5% Bush lead. New Mexico looks to be the final state. Wisconsin is hanging around as well.....there is a possibility that we will get all three.
0151 EST: Waiting for New Mexico, Iowa, or Wisconsin. As expected, Kerry isn’t going to concede...what a loser! No grace in defeat, thus making solid all the opinions about him being an arrogant jerk.
0159 EST: Waiting on one of three.....New Mexico, Nevada, or Iowa. Bush is leading by 11,000 or so in Iowa, 27,000 in New Mexico, and is trailing by a thousand votes in Nevada. It isn’t a stretch that he would win all three (thus giving him 17 more EV’s, or 286). I’m just waiting for the call.
AND...I know about the Electoral College, and House/Senate votes in case of a tie. I really don’t want that to happen, so I would like to see GWB win by a challenge-proof margin. This is dragging out a bit, now. C’mon....
0206 EST: Bush has a lead in New Mexico of 29,000 with 96% of precincts reporting. It’s done. Just waiting for FOX......and.....
0226 EST: This will be my second to last post. I expect that Bush, with 98% of the precincts reporting, and a 29,000 vote lead in New Mexico, is going to get that state called...at some point. He’s also leading in Nevada by 11,000 votes as of right now, and by a similar margin in Iowa. OK....Edwards is on the stage right now...I’ll be back after he speaks.
OK....Edwards statement, in one sentence: “We are going to count every possible vote, and since we couldn’t win at the ballot box, we will via the lawwsuit.” Great. Oh, Kerry won Michigan (it was called for Kerry, though it is closer than Ohio). That makes it 269-238 in the EV department....just a padding of the stats for Kerry at this point. Mr. Barone came on the TV, and told all of us that New Mexico has distinct problems with it’s voting, so they probably won’t get passed to one candidate or the other. I still say Bush will get Nevada (up by 13,000 now), NM, and Iowa (the lead there, with 97% of precincts counted, is 12,000). Give Kerry Hawaii and Wisconsin (sadly), and the final total is 286-252.
0245 EST: Thanks everyone, for your attention and your patronage at Drumwaster’s Rants. GWB won, and the Left has been stood off again. Thank you God.
Now...I’m goin’ to BED.
Steal A Steak And You Go To Jail…
Meet Lindsey Blackledge. The 19-year-old California gal was arrested in July 2002 for possession of a stolen, 14-ounce tri-tip steak. According to the Calaveras County sheriff, the beef was swiped from the outdoor grill of Katherine King, a 38-year-old San Andreas woman who called cops after discovering her meat was missing. When police arrived at the crime scene, they discovered a trail of “meat juice” leading from King’s grill to an upstairs apartment. Inside the apartment, investigators followed the meat drippings to a bathroom, where they found the purloined sirloin hidden in a cabinet below the sink. Blackledge--who was found in the apartment--was charged with a felony.
You know the human capacity for sheer outright stupidity never ceases to amaze me. She didn’t eat the steak, thus destroying the evidence, she hid it in a bathroom cabinet.
What the hell was she hiding it for?!
Via Right-Thinking
It Might Come Down To Ohio..
And if so, this is good news:
CINCINNATI (AP) - A federal appeals court has cleared the way for challengers to be present at polling places in Ohio, ruling early Tuesday that their presence on Election Day is allowed under state law.
A three-judge panel of the 6th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled 2-1 to grant emergency stays of two federal judges’ orders Monday that barred political parties’ voter challengers in Ohio. The judges also consolidated the two cases.
The court said that while there is a strong public interest in letting registered voters vote freely, there is also “strong public interest in permitting legitimate statutory processes to operate to preclude voting by those who are not entitled to vote.”
When I voted in early October I had to show ID. As such I simply refuse to believe that by simply making people show ID that that is in anyway disenfranchising. Anyone who says that it is is either an idiot or a crazy brain-dead leftist. Not that those terms are mutually exclusive.
The judges also said that smooth and effective administration of the voting laws means that the rules can’t be changed in the hours immediately preceding the election.
Or after, for that matter. Not that the Democrats won’t try again in this election (assuming Bush wins of course) like they did in 2000.
The dissent said the citizens of Ohio have the right to vote without the “threat of suppression, intimidation or chaos sown by partisan political operatives.”
Someone get me that appelate judge’s number so I can call him and ask him just how is it that making people verify their identies is in anyway analogous to having their vote supressed or them being intimidated. I’m sorry but if you are not eligible to vote, guess what? You shouldn’t be voting. I suppose they don’t teach logic and critical thinking skills (or, for that matter, common sense) in our nation’s law schools anymore
Republicans wanted to put challengers in many polling places because of concerns about fraud with hundreds of thousands of newly registered voters in a state ...
And that argument was lost on the dissenting judge it seems. What was also lost on the dissenting judge is that for every fraudulent vote that is cast a legitimately cast vote is lost. And that is de facto disenfranchisement.
Via 4RWWS
Good Grief
Log into the MT Control Panel to post my analysis of the Drudge numbers and what do I see awaiting me but about 150 entries of comment spam.
I’ve got my work cut out for me.
Here’s Why I Don’t Read Drudge Anymore
Election 2004 has been rocked with first wave of morning exit polls which show Kerry competitive in key states, campaign and media sources tell DRUDGE.... National Election Pool—representing six major news organization—shows Kerry in striking distance—with small lead—in Florida and Ohio..
My take. Morning exit polls mean precisely, squat.
For a more scientific analysis we go to Michael Blumenthal, the Mystery Pollster:
So if this poll is so sophisticated, why can’t we rely on the leaked mid-day “numbers” that will soon spread like wildfire across the web?
1) It is still just a survey—Even when complete, an exit poll still has the same random variation as any other survey. NEP says typical state exit polls will have a sampling error when complete of +/- 4% at a 95% confidence level, and +/- 3% for the national exit poll. Even if comparable to the final numbers – which they are decidedly not – the mid-day leaked numbers would have much greater error, perhaps +/- 7% or more.
Whatever Kerry’s lead in Ohio and Florida (if he indeed even has one), one makes the educated assumption it is within the mid-day’s NEP exit poll’s estimated margin of error of +/- 7%.
2) The mid-day numbers do not reflect weighting by actual turnout—the end-of-day exit poll used to assist the networks in determining winners will be weighted by the actual turnout of voters at each selected precinct. The weighting will then be continuously updated to reflect turnout at comparable precincts. In the past, mid-day numbers have reflected a weighting based on past turnout, so the leaked mid-day numbers may tell us nothing about the impact of new registrants or the unique level of turnout this time.
One point needs emphasis here: even in past elections, networks never called an election based on raw exit poll numbers alone. They were first weighted by a tally of the full day’s turnout at each sampled precinct. This end-of-day data is (obviously) not available at 12 noon.
Breaking it down by paragraphs. The mid-day numbers are just that, mid-day numbers. With mid-day totals. Not everyone has voted yet.
Second paragraph is a total no-brainer, the end of day numbers are not available at 12 noon.
3) Voting patterns may be different early in the day—People who work full time jobs typically vote more heavily before or after work. Even a perfect mid-day exit poll – and there is no such animal – may not be any better at picking a winner than the half-time scores in any given football game on Sunday. Also, despite what you may have heard on the West Wing, I know of no serious study showing a consistent Democratic or Republican tilt to the morning or evening hours (if anyone does, please email me).
Here I think Blumenthal’s assumption is that Kerry’s supposed lead in the NEP mid-day poll comes from people who either a) Are not working or b) Work later in the day. I make no guesses as to which assumption Mr. Blumenthal is embracing. However, it is worthy of notice that Blumenthal is essentially saying that the mid-day poll numbers are, for all intents and purposes, useless.
4) Early or absentee voting—As of last night, the ABC News survey estimated that 15% of all registered voters nationally had already cast absentee or early ballots. Obviously, these voters will not be available to interviewers standing outside polling places. To incorporate early voting, the National Election Pool is doing telephone interviewing in 13 states to sample the votes of those who voted early. Will these early votes be included in the mid-day leaked numbers? Who knows? I wouldn’t count on it. (Good question, Andrew).
This one pertains to me. I have already voted and because of that I am not voting today, and I am unable to take part in any exit polling, be it mid-day or end of day. The same goes for the estimated 15% of people who have already voted. We are not counted in the NEP mid-day numbers. Here I am going to take a guess; let’s assume that the estimated 15% of the electorate that has already voted breaks 50/50, 7.5% for each candidate, let’s also assume that the 50/50 break applies to both Florida and Ohio respectively, given that we then factor in Mr. Blumenthal’s estimated margin of error of +/- 7% in the NEP mid-day numbers. Now we have a hypothetical lead of .5% for Kerry or we have a hypothetical .5% deficit for Kerry. Essentially a statistical tie.
5) They could be fictional—Both sides have huge armies of field workers sweating it out in the streets right now. Field workers have been known to find creative ways to boost the morale of their own troops or demoralize the other side. Might someone start a rumor by sending made up numbers to a blog? Ya think? After all, the guy most web surfers turn to for leaked exits likes to say that the information he provides is only 80% accurate. What are the chances he could be, excuse the technical term, making shit up?
Given that Drudge is known to engage in sensationalism, and given his known political bias—he’s a conservative for those of you who have been living on a desert island for the past 8 years—the chances that he is reporting this to motivate the base are pretty high. Now whether he is just “making shit up”, who knows?
6) The people who do exit polls would rather you ignored them—OK, admittedly, that is a pretty wimpy reason, but they have a point. Exit polls provide a valuable resource for all of us. The will help us better understand who the voters are, why they vote the way they do and what the answers are to some of the debates that have raged for months that will not be resolved by vote returns alone. When someone leaks or broadcasts results of an exit poll (or telegraphs it by winking the way certain news networks tend to do about about 4 or 5 o’clock), calls are made to ban exit pollsters from polling places. That would be a very bad thing.:
Basically here Mr. Blumenthal is admitting that there is a strong possibility that the poll is wrong. Given that, he is saying to ignore it because it would run counter to his own interests. Remember he himself is a professional pollster and a Democratic one at that.
Mercenary? Definitely. Does that make his analysis wrong? Personally, I doubt it.
Early Exit Polls….Don’t worry.
Here are the polls, listed by Andrew Sullivan (:
State----- Kerry%-- Bush %
AZ----- 45-- 55
CO----- 48-- 51
LA----- 42-- 57
PA----- 60-- 40
OH----- 52-- 48
FL----- 51-- 48
MI----- 51-- 47
NM----- 50-- 48
MINN----- 58-- 40
WI----- 52-- 43
IOWA----- 49-- 49
NH----- 57-- 41
I apologize for the formatting. In a bit of a hurry.
This set of states, with a total of 149 EV’s, shows Kerry winning 121. Ouch. Now, Drudge reports that the early sample polls had a sample of 59% women, 41% men. Now, the regular polling samples usually include 53% women, 47% men...that means that this exit polling is skewed.
I’m correcting to the Harris poll info that men vote 56-44 for Bush, , so....in the interests of fairness, we correct for the gender disparity...using the 3% Bush lead as a barometer:
State----- Kerry%-- Bush %
AZ----- 43.3-- 57.3
CO----- 46.2-- 53.1
LA----- 40.4-- 59.4
WI----- 50.0-- 50.0
PA----- 57.7-- 41.7
OH----- 50.0-- 50.0
FL----- 49.0-- 50.0
MI----- 49.0-- 49.0
NM----- 48.1-- 50.0
MINN----- 55.8-- 41.7
IOWA----- 47.1-- 51.0
NH 54.8-- 42.7
That shows Bush leading or tied in states with 97 EV’s, as opposed to 28.
Feel better? and, remember, these polls are usually badly skewed by people that need transported to the polls, or can vote during the early part of the day....when people are at work. Lots of old people (who favor Democrats), young college kids (Democratic voters as well), and people who cannot drive or otherwise make it to the polls because of reasons other than work (I think that favors Democrats).
OK. I’ll post later.