I said, in a previous post, that the Sunni Iraqis were screwing themselves out of power in the new Iraqi government. 

Well....I predicted that the breakdown would be 64-24-12 (Sh’ia, Kurd, Sunni).  Well, the breakdown turned out to be 48-26-14, or, if the numbers are affixed on a 100-total point scale, we get 55-29-13.  That would make sense, if the electorate voted to their political/religious leanings. 

Look at that for a second....it means that the Sh’ia need to form coalitions....with either the Sunnis or the Kurds....to get anything done.  And, because Sh’ia didn’t vote as a block (as Patrick Ruffini shows us here), they are going to be forced to compromise.  There will be no Sh’ia fundamentalist problem in Iraq....the inherent divisions made sure of that. 

The minority parties are also going to be able to get concessions out of the Sh’ia, because the Sh’ia will want something later.  The Sunni and the Sh’ia do not want the Kurds to push a federalist model through (though I think that wouldn’t be such a bad idea), so they will stand that off.  It is going to be fun to watch. 

And, watch the media try to paint whoever gets the job as an anti-American.  Folks....it doesn’t matter who it is.  The MSM, stung over their loss of power, is going to go through a period of hyperbole.  They are going to try to draw attention to themselves....they are screaming “HEY!! LOOK AT ME!” Go ahead....look.  Bloggers do, anyways.....if only to point out the whacko things we see and hear.  The fact is, the religious leaders in Iraq DON’T want the religion to rule the government.  Sistani is a quietist....he wants religion protected, but not the sole power in the country.  The power of the state, and the power of the religion should be seperate....I think that’s a good idea.  Don’t look for the Iraqi leadership to go all Taliban.  It ain’t gonna happen. 

Moving to the WNW, Syria is in some serious trouble.  It’s biggest ally is Iran, who has been put on notice that they are not to have nukes.....and it just wasn’t Bush telling them that, but the very countries that they are buying their nuke tech from....Germany, france, and Russia.  Syria’s satellite state, Lebanon, is in the fetal stages of a revolution, with a tent city going up near the parliment building.  The puppet government is facing a popular uprising, not unlike what happened in the Ukraine.  Syria is faced with two choices.....retreat from Lebanon and deal with the spectre that they will be surrounded by nations moving towards, or already at, democratic rule (Iraq, Lebanon, Turkey, Jordan, and Israel), or reinforce Lebanon with troops, flip everyone off, and dare someone to do something. 

Someone let the government in Damascus know that there are some things that one must do in order to survive.  Europe might be a broken reed (save the British, and the spirited Eastern flank of NATO), but when France and Germany turn on you, and support the Cowboy from Texas, you might consider the short-term prognosis. 

As in, the Fourth Armored Division. 

Well, shorter than normal, but it’s late, and, frankly, I’m tired.  I need a beer, and 8 hours of deep, sleep. 

Sound good? 

Thanks for sticking by Drumwaster through this move.