China’s advantage is position….just a few tens of miles off of the Taiwanese coast.  Taiwan is well within the striking distance of Chinese missiles and air forces, and a naval task force could leave China at sundown and be near the coast at sunrise.  Air units need just a few minutes, and missiles even less time, to transit the distance.  If China could muster the element of surprise, they could hit Taiwan hard and wrest control of it by sheer numbers. 

Our biggest advantage is the ability we have to see the Chinese coming.  After quickly ascertaining the Chinese movement, we can project air and naval power there in just a few days, and overwhelming air and naval strength within a week.  The Taiwanese also have ways of defending their island, and would be able to hold off a Chinese assault until the weight of American forces forced the Chinese off of their attack.  Could the Chinese win?  At a very high cost, and if the Americans did not come to the aid of the Taiwanese.

It is important to remember that the Chinese have spent most of the time since 1949 building a military that was designed to repel attack from outside their borders.  They only have a very limited ability to project military power outside of China.  Most of their aircraft are older Soviet-based clones or airframes purchased from the Soviets.  Most of their MBT’s (Main Battle Tanks) are older models, and their soldiers are undertrained in comparison to our troops.  China lacks the sealift capability to operate a D-Day-like operation as well…..they have never seen a strategic need for it. 

So….now, we are at war with the Chinese.  What do we do? 

Well, we work to our strength. 

The United States 7th Fleet would quickly close the Straits of Malacca, which is the main deep-ocean channel that oil tankers from the Middle East use when en route to China.  They are only 35-40 miles across, narrowing to just 2 miles, and closing those straits, or blockading them, would be a serious blow to Chinese economic vitality.  The path that the oil tankers would have to take would actually be too close to Australia (a point we will come back to later).  The Chinese have an oil reserve that can be measured in days, as opposed to weeks.  Crippling their ability to wage war would be far easier than invading them and bludgeoning them to death with sheer force of arms. 

Chinese naval assets can be easily pinpointed by satellite and engaged by attack submarine or naval air assets.  It would be impossible for the Chinese to operate their navy in the open ocean environment.  They would be decimated. 

So, it is clear.  Instead of invading the Chinese mainland, and facing off with them mano y mano, we would strangle them from beyond.  We could seriously cripple their economy, and the government’s ability to wage war. Also, with most of China’s industrial and population base within 400 miles of their eastern and south-eastern coasts, they would be subject to American air power and bombardment.  We wouldn’t have to invade…I guess that is my point. 

I speak of air power as if the Americans have a substantial advantage…and we do.  We have fewer fighter aircraft that the Chinese have, but the quality of our airplanes is substantially better.  With the F-15, F-16, and F/A-18, we have three aircraft with over-the-horizon attack capability that beats the best the Chinese can put up against them.  And, we have better bombers, Stealth capability, and better conventional missile systems.  It should be understood that 2500 of their fighter aircraft are of the type used in the Korean War. 

So, we aren’t invulnerable, as Iraq suggests.  We can be hurt, maimed, and killed, but our tools and training are far better. 

So, let’s take the naval dimension out of it.  Let’s look at armies in the field.  On a neutral field, who wins the ground game, given that everything else is equal? 

The Chinese have numbers….mostly.  The uniformed armed forces of each country number close to 2.7 million, but China has much deeper reserves.  However, given the straight-up scenario I am looking at, the Americans have three huge advangages:

1.  Better tanks:  If the T-72 tank is relatively equal to the Type 96 Chinese MBT, then the M1A1’s and M1A2’s win the day.  The main turret range is higher, the armor is better, and the training/survivability of the crews is better. 

2.  Better air support:  Most of the Chinese aircraft are based on 10-20 year old Soviet designs, which have been proven inferior to American air power.  Close-in air support is something we have perfected, and we have stealth capabilities that the Chinese won’t have for 10-25 years.

3.  Experience:  China has not fought an armored infantry engagement in 30 years.  We have in the last 30 hours. 

10,000 American soldiers beat 10,000 Chinese soldiers, given similar warning, preparation, and equal environments.  However, there are absolutes:  We don’t invade China with 160,000 soldiers and expect to win. 

There is the spectre of total war.

Neither country wants this…in fact, both countries would do a lot to avoid it.  However, in the current era, total war would mean at least a limited nuclear exchange, movement of huge amounts of men and material, and economies turning to the war effort. 

In this, the United States is unparalleled. 

With fairly little effort, as I spoke of above, the US could put a stranglehold on the oil supplies coming into China herself.  With the lack of current pipelines, destruction of those existing pipelines could kill any oil entering China.  The American Navy would quickly become the target of the Chinese commanders, because they won’t be able to drive their armies, or their economy, without oil.  So, my opinion is that the Chinese would be the first to use nuclear weapons….and it would be on a carrier group or other point of naval power. 

That would signify the end of the People’s Republic. 

Right now, we have a partial missile shield….it is very new, and only in Alaska (if implementation plans went according to the last data I read), but if the nuclear threat from China were to escalate, the US would throw up what they had….and even if it stopped 40% of the Chinese missiles, that would be substantial.  The estimates of Chinese nuclear warhead supplies range from 80 to 400.  Let’s say they have 400 total, with 200 deployed.  That would give the United States a 25-1 advantage in total weapons, and a 30-1 advantage in deployed weapons.  We have a HUGE advantage in targeting, numbers of ICBM’s, and we have more SLBM’s than the Chinese have deployed weapons.  Insanely, if the Chinese fired off all their ICBM’s (75 to 100), we could stop 20-40.  The rest would impact population centers, military bases….and naval task forces and the like. 

The response would be overwhelming.  A thousand warheads would hit the Chinese mainland 10 minutes from the time theirs were launched.  The massive airborne nuclear forces that the Americans have would also be brought into play.  A nuclear attack would spell the end of operable government in China….and the end of the war, with the United States as a victor. 

Note that we have ignored the political side of things.  I will now ‘go there’. 

The loss of nerve on the Left in this country is caused by two things….a generalized fixation on Vietnam, and a generalized distrust of nationalism.  From Vietnam, we get the ‘victimization’ of the enemy and the soldiers that are killed/injured in the war, regardless of the reason they are fighting, and we also have the inherent belief that we are causing more trouble than we are solving.  The distrust of nationalism (which is innately Marxist) defines any attempt to protect the sovereignty and global standing of the United States as imperialistic aggression.

This is why the bleating over the War in Iraq is so loud and insistent.  We are ‘creating terrorists’ where there were none to begin with (as if there was no evil or anti-American plotting or planning in Iraq before OIF), and we are killing innocent Iraqis/torturing innocent Iraqis/infringing on their liberty, ad nauseum.  If that sounds a lot like the Democrat talking points, you got it.  There is little reason to the Left why America should fight a war. 

The Left would never accept us taking 1000-3000 casualties fighting in Taiwan.  They would blast that as us interfering in the internal affairs of China.  I am sure the Taiwanese know this, and fear a Kerry or a Kennedy making American policy where foreign policy is concerned.  No matter what is said, allies of the USA do appreciate our stance, especially when it deters countries like China. 

However, the Left’s effectiveness in opposing war is severely limited if WE were openly attacked by China.  Think Pearl Harbor.  Think the Zimmerman Telegram.  There would be very widespread and long-lasting support for the war, and casualties would not be looked upon as so agonizingly and morbidly.  They would be understood as a sacrifice for a cause. 

American aggression against China is not on the table.  We would not have a reason to do that.  We have military supremacy, and no territorial ambitions in the area.  We are already established.  They are the ones ascending, and they want Taiwan. 

Also, China is surrounded by containing forces…India, Japan, South Korea, and Russia all share maritime or land borders with China.  And overtly aggressive posturing by China alienates them from one or more of those powers.  Also, given Indian and Japanese cooperation with the US in the theater of military training and policymaking, you see that China would probably not be able to launch a successful war of expansion without being checked from more than one direction.  The pressures on them to simply continue peaceful coexistence with the USA are very much existent. 

In short, man per man, American military strength is more than a match for the Chinese.  We are 15-20 years ahead in most military systems as well.  If we imagine the scenarios that could occur, we could have a bunch of fun However, reality and politics point to a peaceful coexistence with the Chinese and Americans….both nations have a lot to lose in a shooting war.  Chinese growth is inevitable, but the chances that it will end in their being the more powerful nation are slim, given the demographics of our nations, the risks, and the advantages we have at this time.