Thursday, January 03, 2008
I guess we ought to talk about the Iowa Caucuses
...and a prediction or two.
First off, I want to go through the candidates from my perspective, and give you a blurb, along with what I think they will pull in the IC’s:
NOTE: There will be Caucus updates under the fold, but read the article first and be surprised!
Republicans:
Romney: 25 to 28% This guy has to win here....he’s poured a lot of money into the state (as of the end of November, he’d spent $7 million, 20 times that of Huckabee. He’s a East Coast Republican, not so conservative, and though he has campaigned well, he’s got a ‘John Edwards’ pall around him that is dragging him down. If any other candidate had campaigned as well or spent as much, they would be ahead by 10 points.
Mike Huckabee: 22 to 25% This is George Bush with more religion. If you are a guy that doesn’t like ‘Compassionate Conservatism’, then don’t go for this guy. He has managed to get his message out better than anyone else in this campaign, and the Iowa religious Republicans favor him. His deal is that he might have peaked too early, and the media started pulling him apart at a crucial time.
Fred Thompson: 12 to 17% This pains me, because I think this guy would do some serious damage to whatever Democrat he ran against, but Thompson’s message isn’t going to resonate with Iowa voters, even though he is the guy every conservative has been asking for for 7 years. He has been smothered to an extent by the media, and his campaign has been played as lackluster. He has a very outside shot at breaking 20%, but he’ll end up closer to 12%. 15-18% would be a nice result for him.
John McCain: 10 to 15% McCain has managed to get momentum from Huckabee as the Arkansas Governor has peaked too early. With the good press coming from New Hampshire being amplified by the press, McCain has an outside shot at winning third place....a position that really helps him, and really hurts Thompson, who won’t be a challenger for a top finish until South Carolina.
Ron Paul: 5 to 12% If McCain and Thompson stumble (and the polling data has not been absolute that they won’t), Ron Paul has an outside shot at coming in at third. Doing this will make it a certainty that he will be around at the convention, pushing votes to the Left. There is also a chance that we will see him exposed as a guy with a few noisy followers. Either way, expectations are so low, anything over 5% can and will be considered a win.
Rudy Giuliani: 3 to 10% Guliani ignored Iowa, perhaps knowing that he had no chance to win here. If he pulls double digits here, and beats one of the middle-tier (Fred or John) candidates, then he scores a big victory. If he finishes last, he loses a bit of momentum to the winners, and that puts his ‘big state’ plan into a bit of trouble. Romney has a lot to gain if Iowa turns on Hizzoner.
In short: Romney and Huckabee have to distance themselves from the others, and pull over 50% combined. Thompson needs a 3rd place, the stronger the better, and McCain just needs to be close to Thompson to keep his momentum in New Hampshire. Ron Paul gets 10%, he will finally be taken seriously, and Giuliani has overlooked the importance of tripping on the first step.
Now, the Democrats (final numbers, after the second round):
John Edwards: 28 to 38% He’s been charging for a while now, and I think he holds the big MO in Iowa. However, he’s old news and an obvious hypocrite. It’s all in the packaging for JE, and that is his biggest strength and biggest curse. Of course, he is what many would call a protest vote against the neophyte Obama and the monolithic Clinton. He is also the most unpredictable of the three where the final tally is concerned, because few believe he can win the general election.
Barak Obama: 30 to 35% New blood.....it’s what most of the Democrats have been asking for...however, I can’t see people voting for a man named Hussein. I really don’t. However, the Iowans have someone that isn’t establishment, that isn’t a Clinton, and that, while tremendously inexperienced, is a good communicator. He’s going to practically tie with Edwards here.....he could win by six, or lose by six, but if he substantially beats Clinton, he wins either way, as Edwards is unelectable.
Hillary Clinton: 25 to 30% Have people in the middle of the country rejected the Clintons? I say that rejection is beginning. Hillary has come off as inflexible, manipulative, and canned....all the things that she couldn’t afford to be seen as. Now that her aura of invincibility is eroding, she is going to face some of the same problems Rudy will...her domination to this point is closing up.
In short: Edwards and Obama nose to nose. I’ll be surprised if they are separated by more than 5% when the night is over. Edwards, however, isn’t a truly viable candidate on the national stage, both for his baggage and for his packaging. Though Edwards has the movement, Obama, by beating Hillary with authority, sets the table for himself down the road. Unless Hillary can muster a close third or second (if support for Edwards evaporates between the first and second rounds), she’s got more problems than just losing Iowa.
Comment freely. I’ll post results when I can get a hold of them.
Is everyone ready
for the first “Guess That Song” contest of 2008? We’re tentatively scheduling the kickoff for Monday morning, to run for one calendar week.
Thirty songs, and not a single syllabobble of lyrics to be found.
Who’s in? 