The current levee system in New Orleans was built in 1966, and have been improved regularly since then.  They were built and maintained to withstand the force of a Catagory Three hurricane.  Why?  Because, according the article, New Orleans has never been struck by a Catagory 4 or 5 hurricane.  Of the 553 Atlantic hurricanes measured since 1886, 34 have struck within 100 nautical miles of New Orleans.  That means that there is a 6% chance that a hurricane will strike within 100 NM of New Orleans in a given year.  Within 50 NM, the chances are 4%. 

83% of all the hurricanes measured since 1886 have been Catagory 1, 2, or 3 storms.  So, the chance of a catagory 4 or 5 hurricane striking New Orleans is 17% of 4%, or .68%.  That works out to one chance in 147.  Since 13.5% of all hurricanes are Catagory 4, and the remainder are Catagory 5, that puts the odds at one in 197, and one in 588, respectively.  So, in a given year, the chance of the levees holding is 99.32%.  With no history of a Catagory 4 or 5 storm hitting the area, the cost-benefit analysis had shown that the investment in Catagory 4 or 5 levees was not required. 

Before people start complaining about funding, it needs to be noted here that funding for the New Orleans levees had been dropping since at least 1998. This was not a new crisis, caused by the current administration.  In fact, the section of levee that failed was new. 

Moving forward, let’s skip ahead to two weeks ago. 

On August 27th, NOAA issued the first advisory that Katrina had a 25% chance of striking the area around New Orleans.  At that time, it was a Catagory 3 storm.  The mayor of New Orleans had, as part of his plan, a 50-hour window in order to put together his plan.  He scheduled a meeting with his emergency preparedness team at 5:00 CDT on Fridaythe 26th.  After that meeting, Nagin (the mayor) said he would make a decision at noontime on Saturday whether to call for an evacuation.  At 12:47 AM on Sunday the 28th, he was “...exploring the idea...” of a mandatory evacuation.  At that point, Katrina striking within 100 miles of New Orleans was a forgone conclusion....it was going to happen. 

It wasn’t until Sunday that Nagin, after ignoring pleas from the Governor and the President for hours, finally gave the order for a mandatory evacuation.  It was 12 hours before the hurricane was to hit.  Now, the Hurricane Warning was issued at 10:00 pm the preceding day....there was no way that New Orleans could be evacuated in that time. 

Now, as for the Governor...she had not declared a state of emergency as of the 26th, but, to her credit, she did make a formal request for federal aid on the 27th, at 7:00 PM local time.  Bush granted it.  Once that came through, the parishes surrounding New Orleans began their mandatory evacuations. 

The President, for his part, issued the emergency order that allowed FEMA to aid the storm victims on the 27th.  That night, he also urged Mayor Nagin to evacuate New Orleans.  That call was not heeded until the next day.

Now, it is important to know that 4000 Louisiana National Guardsmen were pre-staged in Baton Rouge before the hurricane made landfall.  They were there....but the hurricane and the flooding delayed their entry into New Orleans. 

Also, there was a major breakdown of the local law enforcement.  The New Orleans police department, usually 1500-strong, disintigrated.  By 9-3-2005, their forces were down by two-thirds. Their commander in chief was Mayor Nagin.  That was a total breakdown of civilian authority....and that is, without a doubt, the fault of the city leadership.  Neither the President, nor the Governor, can be held responsible for that.  The looting that occurred happened during that 48 hours before the federal and state troops arrived in force.  That was the point where the ‘delay’ occurred.  During that power vacuum. 

The AP reported at 7:39 PM on the 29th that, “...The federal government began rushing baby formula, communications equipment, generators, water and ice into hard-hit areas, along with doctors, nurses and first-aid supplies.” That was the day of the storm.  The same article mentions that there were search-and-rescue teams from the Pentagon there as well before nightfall on the 29th....why werent they used?  Well, they were, but there was little or no security for them.  So, they couldn’t be used to their full potential. 

As the week went on, let’s look at the federal response:

On the 30th, FEMA teams from around the nation were moving into the area.  Inherently, given the early estimate of 40,000 people in shelters, the ”500 trucks of ice, 500 trucks of water and 350 trucks of military meals ready to eat scheduled for distribution over the next 10 days.”, that was not going to be adequate.  However, as the number of displaced started to grow exponentially, it was woefully poor. 

The movement of people to Houston was basically a clarion call that FEMA couldn’t do it’s job on-site, due to both the security situation, and because of the inability to get resources to those who needed them.  Communications between local and other authorities broke down, and repair people were turned away.  All these things served to to two things....it hid the fact that the United States Navy and Coast Guard were out saving thousands of lives each day, and it put Michael Brown, the head of FEMA, into spin-mode.  That was a mistake that brought a lot of attention onto himself, and exacerbated the problems at hand. 

As FEMA has noted before, it takes three or four days for the main thrust of aid to enter an affected area.  An area the size of Katrina’s swath will take longer.  It took until Wednesday for the security situation to be calmed, then another full day for the busses and trucks and tools needed for the mass evacuation to arrive.  Concurrently, by Saturday, massive amounts of food and water were arriving from FEMA. 

The Governor, for her part, was unwilling to cede control of the situation to the federal government.  She had not utilized a multi-state compact that would have freed up those states to send NG troops and aid until Wednesday.  As of the Saturday after the storm, she had not declared a state of emergency in Louisiana.  Even though the President had requested the authority to federalize all the police and LNG troops in the area, she balked, not wanting to give up the power she had over the LNG and the local police. 

Since the situation on the ground was turned over to General Honore, the situation has become much, much better, with people having access to food and water.  That all happened after the local authorities were supplanted by the military leader, who reports to the President. 

OK....all that being said....

It is obvious that the majority of the problems were caused by the local reaction to the storm.  People think that Michael Brown is an idiot.....but he’s not.  He was, however, not prepared for this, and even admitted so.  In that case, and though not as vociferously as Mr. Loy puts it, Mr, Brown does need to be reassigned.  His failure to attack the problem until it was too late didn’t help save anyone.

However, it is abundantly clear that Bush acted accordingly this week.  The military arm of the federal government served spectacularly, and many more lives would have been lost if it wasn’t for the military. 

However, on the local level, the whole thing broke down.  The civil infrastructure broke down.  The fabric of New Orleans broke down.  That isn’t the fault of the President, or the Governor, but Mayor Nagin.  His leadership, and lack thereof, led to the incapacitation of the NOPD, and showed the true characteristics of local New Orleans politics.  It was the opposite of 9-11, where that mayor charged into the center of it all in order to rally his safety forces.  Nagin failed to act in a timely manner, and was immediately overwhelmed by the situation.  he couldn’t handle it emotionally or politically, and he had spent much of the last week attacking other politicians and entities, then awkwardly praising them. 

The Governor, while strong in some areas, was weak in others.  I believe she was motivated by the seriousness of the situation, then acted, sadly, so that if the situation turned for the better, she could get the lion’s share of the credit.  It was so obvious that Louisiana was completely overwhelmed, she should have quickly ceded authority to Washington.  Had she done that earlier in the week, order may have been restored earlier, and the needed food and shelter could have been put into place 24-36 hours earlier. 

OK...that’s my piece.  I’ll ping Lee, and weblogs, and I welcome commentary.

AFTERWORD: As time goes on, the Governor is slowly descending into her own niche of idiotarianism...one that is terrible to behold. 

First the story from Major Garrett, and the Red Cross being stopped by the Louisiana National Guard.  Then, the political history, described by the Mudville Gazette.  Folks, I am really, really trying to see the good side of this Governor’s actions since the storm passed, but it looks to me as if she is now acting just to shore her own political standing up....at the expense of the lives and health of the people in New Orleans. 

That is low.  That is murder, if that is what she is doing.  With the abovestated refusal to federalize the rescue, the refusal to allow food and water and supplies into the New Orleans area, and the refusal to allow the multi-state pact to be initiated, it is looking more like that.

What changed?  Why is she doing these things?  Nothing she has done since the hurricane passed has been helpful to the people of Louisiana....but they sure have either protected her political power, furthered her interests, and limited what the President could to to help, since she has to OK any further federalizing of the rescue and repair effort.  Is this a question of political payback, or someone that just doesn’t want anyone else getting the credit when New Orleans re-opens for business?  This says it’s political....

What I think we need is her side of the story....her explanation as to why she is doing what she is doing.  Mayor Nagin?  He’s way over his head, and simply not able to handle this.  Plus, he lacks the foresight needed to evacuate his citizens. The first 6o hours of this debacle rest on his ineffectiveness.  However, I am leaning towards the Governor....she is starting to do things that seem more and more crass and politically motivated than anything else. 

Also, for more of the political monster that has surfaces, and the Left’s psychotic need to ignore facts and blame Bush (note not FEMA, but Bush himself....just go and read some left-leaning blogs and thread barons), go here.  Will Collier and Stephen Green are treasures of the Blogsphere for entries like this.