Tuesday, August 08, 2006

Liveblogging the Election….?

Uh...well, two races, to be exact.  Connecticut and Georgia.  Let me break this down a little more clearly....

Connecticut:  This is the Senate Primary, between Ned Lamont and Joe Lieberman.  This race is being played as if it is the Moderate, pro-WoT Democrat against the Left, Kos-based, MoveOn.org type of Democrat.  Lieberman is the underdog here. 

Georgia:  Georgia 04....this is a runoff with Cynthia “I slugged a cop, screamed ‘RACE!!’ and got out of it” McKinney against the more moderate Hank Johnson.  This is a race that might either break right down the middle, or be a landslide for the challenger because of disgust with the antics of McKinney. 

Let’s get it a-going, shall we?

UPDATE:  HUGE and heartfelt thanks to Captain’s Quarters, Instapundit, and Michelle Malkin for linking to this liveblogging.  These three persons are, without a shadow of a doubt, the best of the Blogsphere, and I give them my personal thanks. 

8:27 EST:  right now, there are very early results in the Georgia runoff.  With 1300 votes counted, Hank Johnson was up 76%-24%.  Still too early to count at this time...5% of all precincts reporting in.  As of right now, I can’t get the Connecticut Senate results.  Kudos to the Georgia SOS website, and “BOO!” to the Connecticut SOS. 

8:37:  Georgia 04 to 6% reporting, still 73.3% to 26.7% in favor of Johnson.  I am sure everyone knows about the antics of Cynthia McKinney by now...the constant screeching about race, her anti-Bush stands on everything, her father blaming her last defeat on Jews....she is a racist member of Congress, and is an abuser of power.  She asked the head of the DHS, “Mr. Secretary, if the nursing home owners are arrested for negligent homicide, why shouldn’t you also be arrested for negligent homicide?” after the Katrina response.  She is a co-sponsor of a bill that would create a committee to look into impeaching President Bush.  And, a quote from Wikipedia, “More recently, McKinney sponsored H.R. 4279, which would rename the J. Edgar Hoover FBI Building after Frank Church, and H.R.4968, “To provide for the expeditious disclosure of records relevant to the life and death of Tupac Amaru Shakur.” And she is in Congress.  Was your question about if she was losing, or WHY she was losing?

8:46:  Connecticut SOS site is trash.  Georgia’s most famous race is 12% counted, and Johnson holds a 73.9%-26.1% lead on McKinney.  That is going to close up a bit as the night wears on, so don’t pop the bubbly yet.  Looking for Connecticut Senate results so far has been frustrating, but this site
came through for me...as of right now, Lieberman is trailing 44.8%-55.2%.  It’s early enough (this is all the Democratic voters in the state voting here) to not make a real hard judgement, but this does not bode well. 

8:54:  No real update, but an opinion.  the anti-War, anti-Bush Left has finally gotten the right place (Connecticut, where Kerry won by a 54%-44%), the right candidates (Lieberman, a moderate pro-WoT Democrat and Ned Lamont, an anti-WoT Democrat) and the right time (war in Lebanon, anti-Bush coverage dominating the press, low approval ratings for both Bush and House/Senate Republicans).  If Lamont wins, the Hard Left will go nuts, and the mechanics of the mid-terms will change.  If Lieberman wins, then the status quo will not be so upset as it could have been.  This is another situation where the margins will be almost as important as the victory. 

9:00:  Update on Lieberman and Lamont...Lieberman has 14,870 votes to Lamont’s 19,258.  That works out to a 43.7%-56.3% ratio, and the sky got a little darker for Joementum.  At this rate, with 11% of the votes counted, Lieberman has to win the rest of the remaining precincts by more than 2%, at a minimum.  In Georgia, the site is still at 12% reporting, with Johnson leading McKinney 2466 votes to 873 votes...again, still low, but McKinney has to with the rest of the votes by 7.5%, or at leat 54% to 46%.  I don’t know if that is probable, but it is possible. 

9:11:  Liberman’s deficit is steady and troubling.  As of right now, with 52,361 votes cast, Lieberman is trailing 43.7%-56.3% Lieberman has to win the rest of the election by 2.2%...or 51.3% to 48.7% in his favor.  it doesn’t look very good.  As for our Georgia friends, 13% have reported, and it’s still a Johnson walk; he leads 73.8% to 26.2%. 

9:20:  Connecticut is one quarter counted, and Lieberman is trailing, and in real trouble from a statistical standpoint.  44.8% is where Lieberman stands right now, and Lamont is at 55.2%.  That differential is 10.4%, and Lieberman’s only change is to beat Lamont in the remaining count by more than 3.5% now...51.8% to 48.2% in his favor.  No new news in Georgia-04 yet.  I’ll check on them, the kids, and come back in a jiffy. 

9:27:  38% of the votes cast in the Connecticut primary, and Ned Lamont is leading 53.5% to 46.5% for Lieberman.  Lieberman did better in that cohort of votes, but he still has to make up 7%.  With two-thirds of the votes remaining (roughly), he has to win 52%-48% from here on out to have a chance.  (For your information, that last 21% of votes was 49.42% for Lieberman, 50.58% for Lamont.) Georgia voting stats are still where they were at thirty minutes ago...at 13% counted, Johnson leads 73.8% to 26.2%.

9:40:  Finally!  Two big things...I linked to Captain’s Quarters, where the good Captain is also live-blogging the elections.  Secondly, Georgia updated their election results.  With 18% of the vote counted, Johnson leads with 5,193 votes to McKinney’s 1,648.  Again, that means that 2/11ths of the vote has been counted, and fair Cynthia has to make up 58%.  That means she has to win the remaining votes by 6.6%, or 53.3% to 46.7%.  Again, not impossible, but statistically improbable.  In Connecticut, it’s 64,056 for Joe, 69,466 for ned, translating into a 52.02%-47.98% lead for Nedrenaline.  Oh...and that is the worst campaign slogan...ever.  Lieberman’s made up a percent, but that might have been a precinct that was heavily pro-Lieberman, and may not be indicative of his support statewide.  Or, it might be a trend.  We’ll see. 

9:50:  WSB-TV has 21% numbers for the McKinney/Johnson race, and it’s 70%-30% for Johnson.  Her chances now are even smaller.  To make up 40%, she has to win 60-40 the rest of the way in.  I can’t see that...in other words, she has a very rough road to hoe now. 

9:54:  Halfway home, and the Connecticut race stands as follows:  Lieberman has 72,243 votes, or 47.835% of the vote.  Lamont has 78,780 votes, or 52.165%.  As it stands now, Lieberman trails by 4.33%.  He has to win by that much, or get 5,540 more votes than Lamont in the coming hours. 

9:58: Captain’s Quarters is reporting that Joe Lieberman has closed to within two points with 65% reporting.  If that is the split with two-thirds reporting in, he has to win the remainder by more than four percentage points.  If it’s 51%-49% in favor of Lamont, Lieberman needs to win 52% of the remaining votes.  In Georgia, McKinney is climbing back slowly.  With 35% of the precincts reporting, Johnson leads 61.5% to 38.5%.  Obviously, some deeply pro-McKinney precincts came to the booth and were counted in that period...but she still has to wil the remainder of the votes by 13% in order to have a chance to win.  Also, the good Captain is reporting that McKinney’s people are starting to complain about ‘voting irregularities’.  Puh-lease....

10:04:  Connecticut remains tight, with Lamont leading still by seven thousand votes.  The percentages are 48.06% for Lieberman, 51.94% for Lamont.  That’s with 68% of precincts counted, and that means that Joementum has to beat Nedrenaline (shudder) by 8%, or 54-46, in order to have a real shot at catching him and winning. 

10:10:  Listening to the Captain on 770 CHQR.  If you are following live, click on over (open a new window, so you can also stay here!) and listen. 

10:14:  With 76% of precincts remaining, it’s 48.29% for Lieberman and 51.71% for Lamont.  The percentage needed for a Lieberman win is now 10.26%....it doesn’t look good at all for this primary, but it does make an independent run look a little more tasty.  In Georgia, they are reporting 51% of the votes, with Johnson still winning in fine fashion...58.1% to 41.9% For McKinney to win, she has to win the remaining votes by 17%.  Very unlikely. 

10:21:  WELCOME INSTAPUNDIT READERS!!  I always welcome Instalanches.  Right now, I’m waiting for a general update in Connecticut.  It’s still close...48.3% to 51.7% for Lamont right now, with 76% of precincts reporting.  In Georgia, it hasn’t been that close, with Hank Johnson leading by over 16% with over half the votes counted. 

10:24:  New numbers from New England.  With 81% reporting, Lieberman trails 48.72% to 51.28% It’s almost official at this pont, with Lieberman needing over 56% of the remaining vote to make up the difference.  In Georgia, McKinney is trailing by 16% with 51% reporting. 

10:28:  84% of the vote counted, and Lieberman trails 48.124% to 51.876% At this point, this 3.75% deficit can only be matched with Lieberman winning 17.5% more votes than Lamont.  This one is in the bag for Lamont at this point...I’m going to call it for him at this point....but the massive lead he had just a week and a half ago quickly evaporated under scrutiny. 

10:33:  In Georgia, with two-thirds of the precincts reporting, Hank Johnson leads 58.2% to 41.8% for McKinney.  This 16.4% lead means that McKinney has to win the remaining votes by a whopping 33%, or 67% to 33%.  That isn’t going to happen.....in my humble opinion.  We’ll stay with this one for a while, but I can’t see McKinney recovering from this.  Look for her hyperbole tomorrow in the news.  Maybe, like my kids, she needs to learn how to keep her hands to herself. 

10:39:  A little time to breathe and think.  McKinney’s local career is done...after her second loss to good alternative candidates (remember, she lost a primary in this district in 2002 as well), I can’t see her being able to climb back into the saddle, especially after the year she has had.  The police assault, then her reaction to it, and her complete distain for the primary election as it occurred (her no-shows for the debates, to be specific) have united people against her.  Maybe she has a future in another office, but I can’t see it.  Comment on that...could she run for Senate? 

10:45:  Waiting for updates on both races.  Finishing a Diet Sprite.  Life is good. 

10:52:  With 89% of the votes counted, Lamont leads 51.6% to 48.4% Lieberman has lost this primary, but he has shown good strength within his party.  MoveOn will claim a huge victory, but, as I said before, this was their Perfect Storm.  In other areas of the country, they will not have so much going for them.  Lamont’s not as strong as he was, thanks to a little media look-over (how about that Wal-Mart stock, Ned?) and the common-sense stance Lieberman has on the WoT.  I say that Joe has a pretty good shot as an indy candidate.  Better than I thought he had three weeks ago. 

10:56:  I think they are walking the votes to the counting station in Georgia.  We have been stuck on 67% of the precincts counted for the better part of a half hour now.  Then, as I say that, the numbers change....with 89% of the precincts counted, Hank Johnson has 36,853 votes, or 58.9%, with McKinney having 25,683 votes, or 41.1%.  That means that there is no way that McKinney can catch up, even if she wins the rest of the votes up for grabs.  She’ll have a long time to think about her actions.  It will be interesting to see how she behaves for the rest of her term.  Maybe like a car wreck, maybe humble...?  Not humble?  OK.... 

11:00:  OK...what did we learn? Nothing we didn’t already know.  The Northeast produces staunchly anti-Bush, anti-war candidates, and that they are favored over moderate Democrats.  The South is still a conservative region, with conservative politicians winning over the liberal ones.  In Georgia, name recognition wasn’t enough to overcome the self-promoting and leftist stances of Ms. McKinney.  Lieberman’s name recognition wasn’t enough to protect him (in this primary) against a liberal, anti-WoT candidate.  But this was the left of the left voting in this election, so it won’t be indicative of the general Senatorial election. 

All in all, about what I expected.  A Lieberman win would have been a pleasant surprise, but it wsn’t the end of his story.  McKinney’s demise was a satisfying thing to see, to be honest, if only because of her pompous arrogance and belief in demanding favorable treatment because of her race and position. 

So...good night everyone.  Comment freely, and thanks for coming to Drumwaster’s rants.  Come early and often for commentary. 

11:16:  WHU-WHU-WAIT!! With 94% counted, Lieberman has closed to 49.14% to 50.86% That means that he has to win the remainder of the votes by 30-35% I hate to say this, because it’s pretty much over, but it isn’t quite over.  If we come across a Lieberman area....this might become interesting.  The difference is 1.72%

11:24:  Well..that was fun.  Lieberman concedes, and priomises an Independent run.  Good for him.  With 97% of the votes in, Lamont extended his lead to 51.65%-48.35%.  That finishes it. 

11:25:  And now, for real, I am going to bed.  Good night!!